Rufai Oseni Doubts NBS Inflation Figures On Arise TV

Arise Television anchor Rufai Oseni has voiced doubts about sharp inflation data on air, questioning the credibility of the National Bureau of Statistics' latest figures showing headline inflation at 15.43 percent in July 2026.

According to the NBS, headline inflation eased from 15.91 percent in June to 15.43 percent in July, a 0.48 percentage point decline. On a month-on-month basis, the rate also slowed slightly, from 1.66 percent in June to 1.57 percent in July.

However, the picture is more complicated underneath the headline number. Food inflation actually rose to 20.31 percent year-on-year in July, driven by rising prices for items including rice, water yam, tomatoes, and plantain. The overall Consumer Price Index also increased, from 143.0 points in June to 145.3 points in July, meaning prices kept climbing during the month, just at a slower pace than before.

Speaking on The Morning Show on Tuesday, Oseni made clear he doesn't trust the numbers as presented.

"I don't believe a lot of the data that comes out of this administration," he said.

He pointed to what he described as a change in the statistical base year used for calculating inflation.

"We know what was done. The base year was changed to a base year that Nigeria had the highest inflation," he said.

Oseni tied his skepticism about inflation data to a wider argument about transparency in government spending. He referenced a figure he attributed to international financial institutions regarding extra-budgetary spending.

"It took the IMF or World Bank to tell us that N8.8 trillion was spent on extra-budgetary spending. Till today, we are still asking the Minister of Finance to give us a line-by-line breakdown of how that eight-point-something trillion was spent. We have not seen it," he said.

These specific claims, the N8.8 trillion figure and its attribution, were made by Oseni on air and have not been independently verified in this report.

He also drew a comparison to past statements about Nigeria's refineries.

"In a newspaper article in November 2024, President Tinubu was congratulating NNPC that the refineries were working. In 2026, he's talking about reviving the refineries that he congratulated NNPC for in 2024," Oseni said.

Oseni's sharpest point was less about the statistics themselves and more about lived experience.

"You know, we are saying the inflation rate is 15.4-something. Have prices gone back in the market to the prices you used to have before?" he said.

He closed with a pointed metaphor for what he sees as a pattern of official narratives disconnected from reality.

"You see this charade of deceit, this dance of deceit. One day, we will come to the market square and clap for ourselves. Let the deceit continue," he said.